First Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Estimate 21st Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt

First Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Estimate 21st Century Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt

Sellevold, R. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy)
Vizcaino, M. (TU Delft Physical and Space Geodesy)

2021

Future Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt projections are limited by the lack of explicit melt calculations within most global climate models and the high computational cost of dynamical downscaling with regional climate models (RCMs). Here, we train artificial neural networks (ANNs) to obtain relationships between quantities consistently available from global climate model simulations and annually integrated GrIS surface melt. To this end, we train the ANNs with model output from the Community Earth System Model 2.1 (CESM2), which features an interactive surface melt calculation based on a downscaled surface energy balance. We find that ANNs compare well with an independent CESM2 simulation and RCM simulations forced by a CMIP6 subset. The ANNs estimate a melt increase for 2,081–2,100 ranging from 414 (Formula presented.) 275 Gt (Formula presented.) (SSP1-2.6) to 1,378 (Formula presented.) 555 Gt (Formula presented.) (SSP5-8.5) for the full CMIP6 suite. The primary source of uncertainty throughout the 21st century is the spread of climate model sensitivity.

Greenland ice sheet
machine learning
neural networks
surface melt

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:89074f4e-06c6-416d-ae18-8c53d73dd405

https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092449

0094-8276

Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (16)

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2021 R. Sellevold, M. Vizcaino