Print Email Facebook Twitter Modelling Terrorist Attacks Title Modelling Terrorist Attacks Author Koopman, Daan (TU Delft Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science) Contributor Cirillo, Pasquale (mentor) Oosterlee, Kees (graduation committee) Fokkink, Robbert (graduation committee) Degree granting institution Delft University of Technology Programme Applied Mathematics Date 2018-06-29 Abstract This thesis adds to quantitative literature on terrorism by examining the relationship between various annual country statistics and the number of terrorist attacks. In addition, it assesses the potential of forecasting terrorism. Combining an extensive review of literature from social science, with data analysis of the Global Terrorism Database, results in a specific selection of attacks on country-level, along with various factors that allegedly affect terrorism. It is shown that, under certain conditions, the countries can be fit by a nonhomogeneous Poisson process model with a Weibull baseline intensity and a piecewise constant covariates component. For three out of five countries, the in-sample results are satisfactory, providing a tentative answer to the general debate whether terrorism can be explained by root causes. Out-of-sample results for Afghanistan and Somalia are promising for future research and implementation in policy making. Subject TerrorismModellingForecasting To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:8be343eb-300f-456e-b700-b8251d1f2c0e Part of collection Student theses Document type master thesis Rights © 2018 Daan Koopman Files PDF ModellingTerroristAttacks.pdf 11.4 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:8be343eb-300f-456e-b700-b8251d1f2c0e/datastream/OBJ/view