Print Email Facebook Twitter Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates Title Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment Author Verschuur, Jasper (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI); Student TU Delft) Le Bars, Dewi (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)) Katsman, C.A. (TU Delft Environmental Fluid Mechanics) de Vries, S. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering) Ranasinghe, Roshanka (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education; University of Twente; Deltares) Drijfhout, Sybren S. (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI); Universiteit Utrecht) Aarninkhof, S.G.J. (TU Delft Hydraulic Engineering) Department Hydraulic Engineering Date 2020 Abstract Sea-level rise (SLR) can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive chronic erosion on sandy shorelines, threatening many coastal communities. One of the major uncertainties in SLR projections is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Quantifying this uncertainty is essential to support sound risk management of coastal areas, although it is neglected in many erosion impact assessments. Here, we use the island of Sint Maarten as a case study to evaluate the impact of AIS uncertainty for future coastal recession. We estimate SLR-induced coastal recession using a probabilistic framework and compare and contrast three cases of AIS dynamics within the range of plausible futures. Results indicate that projections of coastal recession are sensitive to local morphological factors and assumptions made on how AIS dynamics are incorporated into SLR projections and that underestimating the potential rapid mass loss from the AIS can lead to ill-informed coastal adaptation decisions. Subject AntarcticaCoastal erosionProbabilisticsRapid disintegrationSea-level rise To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a8d83a54-56cf-4d30-bbd3-55dd5ce3dea2 DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02769-4 Embargo date 2021-07-02 ISSN 0165-0009 Source Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change, 162 (2), 859-876 Bibliographical note Accepted author manuscript Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2020 Jasper Verschuur, Dewi Le Bars, C.A. Katsman, S. de Vries, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Sybren S. Drijfhout, S.G.J. Aarninkhof Files PDF manuscript_revised_final.pdf 9.4 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:a8d83a54-56cf-4d30-bbd3-55dd5ce3dea2/datastream/OBJ/view