Print Email Facebook Twitter Vegetation response to precipitationvariability in East Africa controlled by biogeographical factors Title Vegetation response to precipitationvariability in East Africa controlled by biogeographical factors Author Hawinkel, P. (Flemish Institute for Technological Research; Katholieke Universiteit Leuven) Thiery, Wim (ETH Zürich) Lhermitte, S.L.M. (TU Delft Mathematical Geodesy and Positioning) Swinnen, E. (Flemish Institute for Technological Research) Verbist, B. (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven) Van Orshoven, J. (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven) Muys, B. (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven) Date 2016 Abstract Ecosystem sensitivity to climate variability varies across East Africa, and identifying the determinant factors of this sensitivity is crucial to assessing region-wide vulnerability to climate change and variability. Such assessment critically relies on spatiotemporal data sets with inherent uncertainty, on new processing techniques to extract interannual variability at a priori unknown time scales and on adequate statistical models to test for biogeographical effects on vegetation-precipitation relationships. In this study, interannual variability in long-term records of normalized difference vegetation index and satellite-based precipitation estimates was detected using ensemble empirical mode decomposition and standardized precipitation index with varying accumulation periods. Environmental effect modeling using additive models with spatially correlated effects showed that ecosystem sensitivity is primarily predicted by biogeographical factors such as annual precipitation distribution (reaching maximum sensitivity at 500 mm yr−1), vegetation type and structure, ocean-climate coupling, and elevation. The threat of increasing climate variability and extremes impacting productivity and stability of ecosystems is most imminent in semiarid grassland and mixed cropland ecosystems. The influence of oceanic phenomena such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole is foremost reflected in precipitation variability, but prolonged episodes also pose risks for long-term degradation of tree-rich ecosystems in the East African Great Lakes region. To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:aeaf7dc3-2e67-4258-a30e-4a8f35ccaac5 DOI https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JG003436 Embargo date 2017-05-01 ISSN 2169-8953 Source Journal Of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 121 (9), 2422–2444 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2016 P. Hawinkel, Wim Thiery, S.L.M. Lhermitte, E. Swinnen, B. Verbist, J. Van Orshoven, B. Muys Files PDF Hawinkel_et_al_2016_Journ ... iences.pdf 2.89 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:aeaf7dc3-2e67-4258-a30e-4a8f35ccaac5/datastream/OBJ/view