The effects of weather and climate change on cycling in Northern Norway

The effects of weather and climate change on cycling in Northern Norway

Mathisen, T.A.
Annema, J.A.
Kroesen, M.

Technology, Policy and Management

Engineering Systems and Services

2015-03-09

Weather is identified as one of many factors that influence the demand for cycling. Weather patterns will change due to expected climate change. The aim of this article is to study the extent to which climate change influences the cycling frequency. The analysis in this article is conducted using an econometric model based on data spanning over four years on weather indicators and the cycling frequency in the Norwegian city of Bodø, which is located north of the Arctic Circle. According to the projections for climate change, both temperature and quantity of precipitation are expected to increase in this area during the next century. An important consequence of changes in the climate in the studied region is the reduced duration of what can be characterised as the winter season. However, this consequence is highly uncertain. When using Norway’s middle projections for climate change by 2050, the analysis shows a moderate increase in cycling frequency of 6.2%. For the reduced winter period, the cycle rate might be two and three times higher in 2050 compared to the current level. Both estimates assume that every other potential impact on cycling rates remain equal.

bicycle use
climate change
precipitation
temperature
weather indicators
wind speed

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:bb8df4dd-f74e-44e6-a229-253d59e60c49

Delft University of Technology, Transport and Logistics Group

1567-7141

European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research (EJTIR), 15 (2), 2015

Institutional Repository

journal article

(c) 2015 The Author(s)