Agent-Based Simulations of Energy Transitions

Agent-Based Simulations of Energy Transitions

Chappin, E.J.L.

Technology, Policy and Management

Infrastructures, Systems and Services

2012-06-18

The notion of transition receives noticeable attention in political as well as scientific arenas. In the policy arena in the Netherlands, significant results have not been achieved yet despite all the efforts on ‘managing’ the transition to a sustainable energy sector. Although the scientific literature on transitions contains publications from 25 countries, the US was most important before 2000 and authors from the Netherlands have been dominant since. Simulations of energy transitions are in its early stages, compared to their potential. Our bibliographical analysis of the transition literature shows that the number of papers mentioning simulations is low, only 19 out of 142, and their young. Most of those papers describe case studies that focus on autonomous, unmanaged transitions; only a few aim their simulations at transition management. Complex systems theory tells us that energy infrastructures – true socio-technical systems – cannot be designed. Therefore, transition management is a paradox: when transitions are expected to take decades, how could we know what actions to take now in order to shape energy infrastructures in such a way that the preferred transition will occur over decades? And at the end of the day, how could we attribute the result to transition management activities, whether the transition was successful or not? This paradox is no argument to wait: policy issues regarding energy infrastructures have to be made today. Therefore, we have set out for simulations of energy transition, using agent-based models, as to support energy transition management. Results from three cases – regarding CO2 reduction from power generation, the electricity-intensity of consumer lighting, and a spot market for LNG trade – have proved that it is possible to gain useful insights in how the myriad of decisions made in energy infrastructures can be influenced in a way that a transition is likely.

energy infrastructures
societal transitions
agent-based models
socio-technical systems

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:d3816b27-aedb-43c5-bdca-44f687535dc3

CESUN 2012: 3rd International Engineering Systems Symposium, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands, 18-20 June 2012

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conference paper

(c) 2012 The Author(s)
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