Partial Hierarchy Appliance Modelling In Household Energy Consumption

Partial Hierarchy Appliance Modelling In Household Energy Consumption: Utilizing ARMA based methods to improve the prediction of household energy consumption

Kienhuis, Maurits (TU Delft Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science)

Kuilman, S.K. (mentor)
de Weerdt, M.M. (graduation committee)
Cavalcante Siebert, L. (graduation committee)

Delft University of Technology

Computer Science and Engineering

CSE3000 Research Project

2023-06-28

The ever-evolving power grid is becoming smarter and smarter. Modern houses come with smart meters and energy conscious consumers will buy additional smart meters to place in their home to help monitor their energy consumption. This new smart technology also opens the door to more accurate power consumption forecasting. In this study we look at utilizing a partial hierarchy, in which one of the appliances in a household is modelled separately from the rest of the house, to help improve household energy consumption forecasting accuracy. This is done in conjunction with Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) based models. Three variants of ARMA based models will be looked at: Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous variables (ARIMAX). These methods will then be compared to more baseline approaches such as a persistence method and a seasonal moving average. Our analysis has led us to conclude that the partial hierarchy model offers little to no benefit when applied in the field of household energy consumption forecasting when built upon ARMA based models. ARMA based models in general appeared to be poor performers when it came to household energy consumption forecasting.

Time Series Forecasting
ARIMA
energy consumption forecasting
household energy consumption

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:da0e7461-3263-4397-8aa0-30828d5ad65d

Student theses

bachelor thesis

© 2023 Maurits Kienhuis