Bayesian networks in levee reliability

Title

Bayesian networks in levee reliability

 Author

Roscoe, K.
Hanea, A.

Faculty

Civil Engineering and Geosciences

 Department

Hydraulic Engineering

 Date

2015-07-12

 Abstract

We applied a Bayesian network to a system of levees for which the results of traditional reliability analysis showed high failure probabilities, which conflicted with the intuition and experience of those managing the levees. We made use of forty proven strength observations - high water levels with no evidence of failure - to refine the probability distributions of the random variables relevant for failure, and to improve the failure probability estimate of the system. We found that the use of these observations in the Bayesian network resulted in a decrease in the estimated faliure probability of over two orders of magnitude.

 To reference this document use:

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ddc3a721-0b25-41d2-afea-1682976bce58

 Source

ICASP12: 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, Vancouver, Canada, 12-15 July 2015

 Part of collection

Institutional Repository

 Document type

conference paper

 Rights

(c) 2015 The Author(s)
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada
Files
PDF 321983.pdf 3.84 MB
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