Print Email Facebook Twitter Uncertainty in boundedly rational household adaptation to environmental shocks Title Uncertainty in boundedly rational household adaptation to environmental shocks Author Taberna, A. (TU Delft Multi Actor Systems; TU Delft Policy Analysis) Filatova, T. (TU Delft Multi Actor Systems; TU Delft Policy Analysis) Hadjimichael, Antonia (The Pennsylvania State University) Noll, B.L. (TU Delft Multi Actor Systems; TU Delft Policy Analysis) Department Multi Actor Systems Date 2023 Abstract Despite the growing calls to integrate realistic human behavior in sustainability science models, the representative rational agent prevails. This is especially problematic for climate change adaptation that relies on actions at various scales: from governments to individuals. Empirical evidence on individual adaptation to climate-induced hazards reveals diverse behavioral and social factors affecting economic considerations. Yet, implications of replacing the rational optimizer by realistic human behavior in nature-society systems models are poorly understood. Using an innovative evolutionary economic agent-based model we explore different framings regarding household adaptation behavior to floods, leveraging on behavioral data from a household survey in Miami, USA. We find that a representative rational agent significantly overestimates household adaptation diffusion and underestimates damages compared to boundedly rational behavior revealed from our survey. This "adaptation deficit" exhibited by a population of empirically informed agents is explained primarily by diverse "soft" adaptation constraints-awareness, social influences-rather than heterogeneity in financial constraints. Besides initial inequality disproportionally impacting low/medium adaptive capacity households post-flood, our findings suggest that even under a nearly complete adaptation diffusion, adaptation benefits are uneven, with late or less-efficient actions locking households to a path of higher damages, further exacerbating inequalities. Our exploratory modeling reveals that behavioral assumptions shape the uncertainty of physical factors, like exposure and objective effectiveness of flood-proofing measures, traditionally considered crucial in risk assessments. This unique combination of methods facilitates the assessment of cumulative and distributional effects of boundedly rational behavior essential for designing tailored climate adaptation policies, and for equitable sustainability transitions in general. Subject agent-based modelclimate change adaptationdistributional impactsexploratory modelingsurvey To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f71fe302-04d1-4532-b84f-b5a56f5ac3f5 DOI https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2215675120 ISSN 1091-6490 Source Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120 (44), e2215675120 Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2023 A. Taberna, T. Filatova, Antonia Hadjimichael, B.L. Noll Files PDF taberna_et_al_2023_uncert ... shocks.pdf 16.58 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:f71fe302-04d1-4532-b84f-b5a56f5ac3f5/datastream/OBJ/view