Morphological impact of a storm can be predicted three days ahead

Morphological impact of a storm can be predicted three days ahead

Baart, F. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering; Deltares)
van Ormondt, M. (Deltares)
van Thiel De Vries, J.S.M. (TU Delft Coastal Engineering; Royal Boskalis Westminster)
van Koningsveld, M (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Van Oord)

2016-05-01

People living behind coastal dunes depend on the strength and resilience of dunes for their safety. Forecasts of hydrodynamic conditions and morphological change on a timescale of several days can provide essential information to protect lives and property. In order for forecasts to protect they need be relevant, accurate, provide lead time, and information on confidence. Here we show how confident one can be in morphological predictions of several days ahead. The question is answered by assessing the forecast skill as a function of lead time. The study site in the town of Egmond, the Netherlands, where people depend on the dunes for their safety, is used because it is such a rich data source, with a history of forecasts, tide gauges and bathymetry measurements collected by video cameras. Even though the forecasts are on a local scale, the methods are generally applicable. It is shown that the intertidal beach volume change can be predicted up to three days ahead.

Forecasts
Morphology
Skill

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:fa7654af-b4d4-48c8-a87f-280d2f3b2361

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2015.11.011

2018-03-30

0098-3004

Computers & Geosciences: an international journal, 90, 17-23

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2016 F. Baart, M. van Ormondt, J.S.M. van Thiel De Vries, M van Koningsveld